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EPA’s standards for light-duty vehicles mandated reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improved fuel economy. From 2012 through 2025, the standards become progressively more stringent, and each year the EPA will analyze manufacturers’ performance toward meeting the standards and provide that data to the public. If the first report is any indication of success, everyone stands to benefit from the efforts of automakers, even if you don’t even own or drive a car.
According to the EPA, automakers are doing a great job at producing cleaner vehicles that also save consumers money on fuel and reduce our national dependence on foreign oil. The report, which was released in late April, used data from the 2012 model year (MY) and showed that manufacturers were not only meeting, but exceeding, emissions limits for tailpipe GHGs. Overall, GHG performance was on average 9.8 grams of GHG/mile better than the 2012 requirements. Comparing MY 2011 to 2012 vehicles, 2012 emissions were reduced by 22 grams of GHG/mile over 2011 vehicles.
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Fuel economy also showed improvement with MY 2012 vehicles averaging 23.6 miles per gallon (mpg), which was 1.2 mpg higher than MY 2011. Preliminary data for MY 2013 vehicles also project continued improvements of 0.4 mpg and a 6-gram/mile decrease in GHG emissions.
Both the emissions reductions and fuel economy numbers are all-time records, according to the EPA, which also reported that the fuel economy achievement is the second largest annual improvement in the past 30 years. The EPA also notes that although the year-to-year trends may seem the most impressive, they are also influenced by such factors as the poor economy, the Cash for Clunkers program, and natural disasters like the tsunami in Japan.
Thus, the long-term trends have the greatest value as they are less influenced by short-term events. For example, using final trends data from MY 2004 through MY 2012, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have decreased by 85 grams/mile, or 18 percent, and fuel economy has increased by 4.3 mpg, or 22 percent. Put another way, compared to 5 years ago, twice as many sport utility vehicles and small trucks get more than 25 mpg, and seven times as many cars get 40 mpg or more.
Although innovative automotive improvements are constantly under development, two of the engine technologies behind the emissions reductions and better fuel efficiency in 2012 were actually introduced 20 years ago. These are variable valve timing (VVT) and multivalve engines, both of which were projected to be included in more than 90 percent of MY 2013 light-duty vehicles.
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Gasoline direct injection (GDI) engines are another popular technology, with a market share that has increased tenfold from less than 3 percent in 2008 to more than 30 percent in MY 2013. Similarly, turbochargers, which are often used with GDI engines, have also seen a market share increase of a factor of five since MY 2008.
Looking forward, the EPA projected that vehicles manufactured today could meet or exceed targets in MYs 2016 to 2025, based on comparisons of power train designs and assuming air-conditioning improvements. So far, EPA’s projected data show that 28 percent of MY 2013 production already meets MY 2016 emissions goals (or could meet them with the expected air-conditioning improvements). Further down the road, about 5 percent of MY 2013 production could meet the MY 2025 standards.
The GHG emissions standards are projected to eliminate 6 billion metric tons of GHGs over the lifetimes of vehicles sold in MYs 2012 to 2025, which is more than the total amount of CO2 emitted nationwide in 2012. Consumer fuel savings for purchasers of new MY 2025 vehicles are also estimated at more than $8,000 over the lifetime of the vehicle.
The full report that also contains manufacturer-specific information is available for downloading at http://epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm.